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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often acts as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest upset.

However the current competition is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent strugglers rising in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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